France, as the most powerful European country (if we exclude Russia), hasn’t had normal population growth since the 1600s. Some estimate that if it had normal growth, the country would have around 300 million people. So let’s dive into speculations.
Since France is a rich country, there would be enormous consequences for the European and the world order. It same goes for the world of science.
What kind of country France is now?
The post-war order was as follows: France would be the muscle (strong army; it is larger than the German army), and Germany (totally controlled by foreign countries via economic means (when you control the economy, you control the politicians)) would be the economic power.
Some relate France to the United States. Far more smaller, but it has enormous hard and soft power compared to Germany which is a mere good sheep.
Demographic history of France – 14th century and so
During the medieval period, France experienced fluctuations in population due to famines, plagues, and wars. The Black Death in the 14th century, for example, had a devastating impact on the population, leading to a significant decline.
The early modern period saw some recovery in population following the demographic setbacks of the medieval era. Agricultural advancements, such as the adoption of new crops and techniques, contributed to increased food production and population growth. However, wars, such as the Hundred Years’ War and religious conflicts like the Wars of Religion, continued to disrupt population stability.
France’s population experienced moderate growth during the 17th and 18th centuries. But it was marked by periodic crises such as famines and epidemics. The Frence Revolution in 1789 brought about social and political upheaval, which also affected demographic patterns.
Demographic history in modern times
The 19th century witnessed significant demographic changes in France. The population experienced rapid growth due to improvements in public health, sanitation, and medical advancements. It led to a decline in mortality rates. Industrialization also played a role in urbanization and population movement from rural to urban areas.
The two World Wars had a profound impact on French demographic history. World War I resulted in a considerable loss of life among the French population, particularly among young men. The interwar period saw a recovery in population growth. World War II, followed by the post-war period, also brought about demographic shifts due to population displacement, resettlement, and reconstruction efforts.
In the post-World War II era, France experienced a baby boom followed by a decline in birth rates due to factors such as urbanization, increased education and employment opportunities for women, and access to contraception. Immigration has also played a significant role in shaping French demographics, particularly since the mid-20th century, with migrants coming from former French colonies as well as other regions.
300 million France? Really?
Professor Guillaume Blanc reads: “In the eighteenth century, France was the China of Europe. But after a thousand years of dominance based on particularly fertile land, she declined over the next 250 years to be just another European power. Around this time, more than 100 years before the rest of Europe, French women began to have fewer children. In 1700, almost 1 in 25 inhabitants on Earth, and one in five in Europe, was French. Today, less than a percent of humanity is French. Why did France’s population decline in relative terms so dramatically, and did it really mark the decline of France?”
“Had France’s population increased at the same rate as England’s since 1760, there would be more than 250 million French citizens alive today.”
The American Historical Associaton reads: “… France’s neighbors were showing very marked increases in population. The French figure rose about one-third in the century from 1830 to 1930 while those for Italy and Germany doubled. Had there been a 1940 census, France would have made an even poorer showing since by that year territorial additions had given Germany a population twice as big as that of France.”
“Moreover, very significant changes were taking place within the forty million total of French population. Once the most populous country of Europe, France in 1930 was far less densely populated than its neighbors. As a result, immigration from Germany, Italy, and Spain during the interwar years provided France with a population that by 1930 was already about 7 per cent of foreign origin.”
However, the estimates vary and there is still the possibility France would have had 300 million people.
It was once that populous relatively to other countries
How come – it is an exaggeration – Napoleon could have declared war on everyone? If we compare it with the current state, 80 million Germany wouldn’t stand a chance fighting 300 million France.
At the beginning of the Napoleonic Wars, France had a population of around 29 million.
The United Kingdom, which was one of France’s primary adversaries during the Napoleonic Wars, had a population of around 10 million people at the beginning of the 19th century.
Prussia, a key player in the Napoleonic Wars, had a population of around 10 million people at the start of the 19th century.
Austria, another major participant in the Napoleonic Wars, had a population of around 20 million people at the beginning of the 19th century.
What impact it would have if France had 300 million people?
France, as a country with a welfare state, couldn’t compete with the US. However, the whole European relations would be different.
Nobody would utter a phrase about Germany: “… too big for Europe and too small for the world.”
France would be more than big enough for Europe and large for the world, so Germany would be contained easily.
Her reputation would grow in terms of international diplomacy, military strength, economic power, and cultural influence.
The Nobel Prizes wouldn’t go to just Anglo-Saxxon scientists. As a matter of fact, France would be the second leading power in science and research.
Learning French, Hollywood-like movies and tons of music in French
We were taught British English early on, only realizing the American one is more prevalent such as in movies, music, literature, science, and so on.
So Hollywood wouldn’t bear the status of the most significant movie studio all around the world. France would make a great competitor.
Also, the Americans wouldn’t hesitate what language to learn.
The richer background eminences
The more people, the larger the economy, and the larger the wealth of the super-rich who control politics from behind. That would make a great impact on foreign relations, and influence in other countries.
For example, the domination of Ango-Saxxon influences would be diminished, while one based on one religion would be the biggest.
Who would rule the world? The duo US-France
Chinese ambitions to make the world autocratic would fail miserably. The 600 million economically advanced duo of the US and France would rule the world even though disputes would certainly occur.
The promotion of democratic values and some selection of economic human rights would be more prevalent.
The world order would be completely different from what we see now.
Conclusion
300 million of people would change the course of history of the world and this article doesn’t intend to write alternative history.
For readers who are not familiar with the material I write, it may sound weird. However, there are tens of millions of shadows never born. Nobody had murdered the French people. They were never born. We must emphasize the role of a more advanced moral system such as utilitarianism or a system that would create infinite numbers of individuals with infinite happiness.
Leave a Reply